03. Quality Management
With the growing demand for ISO certifications, the number of studies analyzing the evolution of such certifications over time in the most diverse contexts and countries has also increased. There are several forecasting methods, used as a way to verify the behavior of certain variables in the future, given their history. In this context, this study aims to analyze the number of ISO 9001 certifications from Brazil and their relationship with the variation of the indicators Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Human Development Index (HDI). The method used was the regression analysis, through which a model was identified and adjusted to 75% of the series data, and its validation through the forecast of the remaining 25%. The model presented adequacy to the data for both variables, characterizing a multiple regression, which quadratic model Y = -268.3 + 0.000006X1 + 782X2 ? 553.1X2*X2 has an adjusted R2 of 94.07%. The model validation analyzed from the forecast indicates that it is good for predicting, even with the existing variation between 2017 and 2019. From the forecasting model and the response optimization analysis, it can be concluded that the number of ISO 9001 certifications in Brazil should be at least 25% higher, given its economic, social and demographic conditions, especially if compared to other Latin American countries.
PALAVRAS-CHAVE: quality management system, regression analysis, gross domestic product, human development index